Indian Politics

PM Not in power

'Not in power' PM leaves intelligence agents confused

The latest issue of the Economist describes Mr Manmohan Singh as a Prime Minister who is "in office but not in power... someone to be pitied rather than admired".
It would be no exaggeration to suggest that intelligence operatives and those tasked with combating jihadi terrorism from Kashmir to Kanyakumari share the Economist's perception.Confusion created by political signals sent out by the Prime Minister and his men who have been extremely chary of saying anything harsh about Pakistan or Gen Pervez Musharraf is fast turning into contempt."You can't hold hands with Gen Musharraf in New York and refuse to castigate Pakistan for its continued support to cross-border terrorism and expect us to fight terror in New Delhi," says a senior intelligence official. According to him, intelligence agents have a "unilinear mind" and are easily confused by political statements that run contrary to what is expected of them.Another senior operative points out that if the political leadership publicly declares that it "would not allow terrorism to impede the peace process (with Pakistan)", then agents are bound to pick up the wrong signal - that the threshold of tolerance has been raised and fresh terror strikes will not be met with a tough response."It is amazing. After his meeting with President George Bush, the Prime Minister talked of zero tolerance towards terrorism. He mentioned cross-border terrorism in his UN General Assembly speech. Yet, he was most mellow and cautious about his choice of words after his meeting with Gen Musharraf," he says.He goes on to add, "When the Prime Minister merely talks of external linkages of those behind Saturday's terrorism during his telephone conversation with Gen Musharraf, although by then intelligence agencies had more than indicated that Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Tayyeba had a role in the bombings, it is most distressing.""The announcement about opening the LoC," according to a security analyst in South Block, "could have been deferred by a couple of days. But it was done within hours of the Delhi bombings". He also pointed out that instead of opening the Line of Control at five points to facilitate aid for the victims of the October 8 earthquake in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, the Government should have insisted on sending teams across the LoC."The only reason why Gen Musharraf did not allow us to send teams to Muzaffarabad and its adjoining areas is because he did not want India to get hold of credible evidence about terrorist camps still existing in and operating from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. And we capitulated," he added.Another senior official involved with monitoring cross-border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir cites figures that do not reflect any dramatic decline in either jihadis crossing over from Pakistan or violence unleashed by them. For instance, till October 24 this year, terrorist violence in Jammu & Kashmir has claimed 1,522 lives, compared to last year's toll of 1,810. Of those killed this year, 882 were terrorists, 183 security forces personnel and 457 civilians.There is an increasing feeling within intelligence agencies involved with tracking the 'chatter' and following the 'footprints' of potential terrorists who form sleeper cells that while Mr Manmohan Singh and his team steer clear of blaming Pakistan or reminding Gen Musharraf that he is yet to deliver on his promise made to former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, when things go wrong, as they did in Delhi, they will be used to cushion the blow of popular resentment."We are expected to be the fall guys... the blame is ultimately pinned on us," says an operative with the Special Intelligence Bureau. He also points out the command and control structure which has become a stumbling block.With National Security Adviser MK Narayanan, a former IB Director, bringing all intelligence agencies under his command and control, the Union Home Ministry and the Cabinet Secretariat have been virtually cut out of the loop. Access to both raw and processed information has now become the sole prerogative of the NSA and, to some extent - if Mr Narayanan so decides - the Prime Minister.What has helped Mr Narayanan tighten his hold over both IB and R&AW is the fact that both the premier intelligence agencies are headed by his hand-picked men. Secretary (R) Hormis Tharakan has just been given a two-year extension. And, since Mr Narayanan micromanages both IB and R&AW, everybody is cautious not to step out of the line or do anything that could be remotely construed as contrary to the political thinking in the PMO.In the absence of a decisive leadership calling the shots, the counter-terror strategy of the NDA era has all but collapsed. The Prime Minister and his team have adopted a policy of treating terrorism as a mere law-and-order problem that should be left to the police. Such an approach cuts out intelligence agencies from playing a proactive role in locating sleeper cells and busting terror networks.Within IB, operatives say, the effort is to pump human resources into gathering political intelligence. This has reached a situation where the best are being asked to divert their attention from tracking terrorist organisations and their members to electronic surveillance, including monitoring e-mail and forum discussions."The Pakistanis are laughing at us... we can't blame them, can we?" asks a former Director of IB.

posted by vjhaver @ 8:07 AM